The Yankees have Mariano Rivera, who is actually less intimidating now that he is acting in Taco Bell commercials. He's about the only closer this postseason whose team wants him pitching. The other teams simply start their closers. Halladay, Lee, Lincecum. You get to see them in the 9th, and the 1st! [If you didn't see Halladay's no-no on Wednesday night, you did yourself a disservice. It was truly filthy stuff. It was Billy Madison dodge-ball dominant.] In an era where more and more players are bigger and better, having an elite stud makes all of the difference. I've noticed that more and more this college football season. The elite programs aren't dominating like 20-30 years ago because you can't own ALL of the talent. But, you can own a handful of elite players. Which is why Michigan escapes at Indiana. Oregon outruns Stanford. Etc. Etc. Can we apply this theory to this weekend...
#17 Michigan State @ #18 Michigan -4.5
I'll say that both teams were impressive last weekend. Sparty was better overall than Wisconsin, while the Wolverines survived an assault on the road by Indiana. Will we have a week when Denard Robinson is stopped by anybody not named Denard's Hamstring? Okay, let's play the elite athlete game with this one... Michigan: Robinson; Michigan State: Greg Jones. Well, that's a tie, so we give it to the home team, right? I'm not. There may be only two guaranteed playing-on-Sunday guys on the field, but the Spartans have plenty of talent on both sides, while Rich-Rod's defense is looking like Syracuse the last few years. I like the road dog in this one...
Michigan State 31, Michigan 28
#23 Florida State @ #13 Miami -6
Remember when this game used to kick off the season? Remember when a national championship was on the line? Remember when Bobby Bowden found a way to mainline vodka into a European import's leg just to avoid the exclamation "wide right!"? Are we getting back to that game? I don't think this primetime matchup will come close to giving us what happened in Eugene last weekend. Miami looked solid on the road a Pitt a few weeks ago, but then Jacory Harris keeps throwing it to the other team. On the other side, Christian Ponder is still my guy, but he broke my heart when I picked them to cover at Oklahoma in a Week 2 bloodbath. Stat, Miami went 2-1 on a difficult road trip, and return home with real BCS dreams. The 'Noles have been suspect on the road, and no, winning at Virginia doesn't do it for me. Sorry, Christian. (Too many elite athletes to count, but raw)
Miami 27, Florida State 17
#12 LSU @ #14 Florida -6.5
Go back to last week's predictions and read what I wrote about Penn State. I feel the exact same way about LSU, with a number of differences: 1) They don't even trust their QB 2) While they haven't lost, I consider last week a 'L' to the Vols 3) Karma is always watching. The Tigers being ranked this high is an injustice to ranking systems worldwide. Florida is still trying to figure everything out after stepping up to the NFL last week and getting beat. This games reeks of two ships passing in the night. Florida, on their way to being the team nobody wants to play in November and LSU, the team everybody wonders how they were ranked come November. (In four year, this Gator team will outnumber LSU 3-to-1 in terms of players in the league)
Florida 27, LSU 10
#1 Alabama @ #19 South Carolina +7.5
This is the game I marked on my schedule as being the one that nips the Tide. Coming off the brutal back-to-back of Arkansas and Florida, what more can they take. But, remember, this is an NFL team. They get paid (joking, "I love you, Nick Saban") to win games like these. I will see your Marcus Lattimore and raise you the Mark Ingram/Trent Richardson power duo. (That's a 2-1 victory at one position in eliteness!) I went against Spurrier once this season and got burned. Now, he's got a full week of preparation for this game. But, Auburn ran all over this defense two weeks ago, and they couldn't offer the same dual threat that Bama can. (I am only saying all of this because I easily could write it the other way, but I need something to give my pick conviction) I am going to hedge and go with the BOB here:
Bama 28, South Carolina 24
Last week - You see, this is why we always include the disclaimer that Cover Two does not participate in or support gambling on sports. Rather, it is used to make picking the games even more interesting! Because for every guarantee (Penn State is woeful against good teams on the road), you get Oregon erasing 25 points (including the spread) they spotted Stanford in that game. Cover Two was 4-1 picking winners and 3-2 against the spread. (If you are a degenerate gambler and didn't take Oklahoma last week, just give it up)
Season - 23-5 on winners and 15-11 against Vegas this season
You know what... For somebody only picking games matching top 25 teams, I am happy with the overall mark, but that Vegas number needs a little pep. So, let's roll the dice: I also like Indiana getting 22.5 at Ohio State, Georgia Tech giving 10 at home against Virginia and the Purdue/Northwestern OVER (49.5) - There, I'll be .500 or below next week, and we will all learn a valuable lesson.
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